Kenya faces a blockage of duty-free access to the US market, the world’s largest consumer market, if the 25-year old African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) agreement is not renewed. The deal expires on 30th September  2025 and the clock is ticking for Kenya and other African countries.

AGOA has been a crucial cog in the wheel of Kenya’s export drive into the vast US market, allowing duty-free access for a wide range of products, particularly textile products.

If this duty free deal is not renewed, Kenya-USA trade volume which hit an estimated $3.3 billion in 2024, up 18% ($498 million) from 2023, is under threat. Also facing a gloomy future are over 60,000 Kenyans working within the Export Processing Zones (EPZs), corridors created mainly to supply the US market.

Kenyan apparel shipped to the US under the AGOA window earned $470m in 2024, a 19.2% rise from the previous year, according to data from the KNBS Economic Survey 2025. Some 32 African countries are eligible for AGOA benefits. In 2015, Congress passed legislation modernising and extending the program to 2025.

Africa’s trade with the US was estimated at $104.9 billion in 2024, up 8.3% ($8.0 billion) from 2023. According to diplomatic sources, Kenya has been keen to resume negotiations with the Trump administration on a bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA), a deal first initiated under Trump’s first tenure at White House, before it was suspended by Joe Biden.

Without AGOA, Kenya risks losing its competitive edge against competitors such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Egypt.

Five years ago during the Biden administration, the US and Kenya officially launched and completed two rounds of negotiations to pursue a free trade agreement. But these talks lost momentum as the US went to the polls.

The then US Trade Representative Katherine Tai promised but failed to deliver a plan to review all trade agreements between the US and Kenya. US investments in Africa already face mounting uncertainty and stiff competition especially out of China.

The US-Kenya FTA is seen by the US Trade Rep and Senate as critical in countering this challenge to US dominance and influence in East Africa.