The price of maize, Kenya’s staple food, has surged to its highest level in nearly two years, driven by a significant drop in local production, delayed harvests, and mounting pressure from animal feed manufacturers.

Despite the government’s intervention to ease pressure on the grain market through duty-free imports, the supply shortage continues to push maize prices upward, raising alarm over food security and the cost of living.

According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), the average price of a kilogramme of loose maize rose to KSh 71.24 in July 2025—marking the highest price recorded since November 2023, when it stood at KSh 71.98. This spike comes at a time when millions of Kenyans are already grappling with increased costs of basic food items.

The maize shortage has been exacerbated by a combination of poor weather conditions and delayed harvests across major growing zones. In particular, unpredictable weather patterns, most notably the destructive floods experienced in May 2024, disrupted farming activities during the last planting season.

As a result, KNBS data shows that the country’s total maize output dropped by 6.1% in 2024, falling from 47.6 million to 44.7 million 90-kilogramme bags. This shortfall meant that the government missed its ambitious production target of 74 million bags, a goal aimed at securing the nation’s food supply under President William Ruto’s fertiliser subsidy programme.

In response to growing concerns about maize availability, Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe, in April 2025, authorised the duty-free importation of 5.5 million bags of yellow maize for exclusive use in animal feed production. This was intended to reduce the intense competition between human consumption and animal feed processors, which has been a major driver of market pressure.

However, even with this intervention, maize prices have continued to climb. In key maize-producing counties in Western and Southern Kenya—including Narok, Bungoma, and Kisii—retail prices for a 90-kilogramme bag of maize have now reached up to KSh 6,400. This price surge has occurred ahead of the main harvest season, which is expected later in the year.

The situation is equally strained in the North Rift region, often referred to as Kenya’s breadbasket, where large-scale maize harvests are not expected until October or November. Until then, both consumers and millers are at the mercy of limited supplies and volatile market prices.

The scarcity has forced flour millers to seek additional maize supplies from neighboring Tanzania to bridge the deficit. These imports, however, come at a higher cost.

In April 2025, when millers ramped up their imports, the wholesale price of a 90-kilogramme bag of maize had already risen to between KSh 4,250 and KSh 4,300—up from KSh 3,400 to KSh 3,500 in December 2024. This additional cost has been passed on to consumers, contributing to a rise in the cost of maize flour across the country.

For the first time since November 2023, the price of a standard two-kilogram packet of sifted maize flour has crossed the KSh 160 mark, a key psychological and economic threshold for many households. In parallel, the average retail price for fortified maize flour has also surpassed KSh 170 for the first time since February 2024.

The persistent Increase in maize and maize flour prices has contributed to a rise in Kenya’s overall inflation rate. According to KNBS, the country’s inflation rose from 3.8% in June 2025 to 4.1% in July 2025, driven largely by the rising cost of essential food commodities such as maize flour and sugar.

These developments underscore the fragility of Kenya’s food supply chains and the broader risks to food security. Experts warn that unless urgent measures are taken to stabilise the market, including fast-tracking imports, enhancing storage and distribution systems, and improving local production resilience, millions of Kenyans could face even higher food prices in the coming months.

As the country awaits the October–November harvest season, all eyes remain on the government and agricultural stakeholders to contain the escalating maize crisis and shield vulnerable households from further economic strain.