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Kenya’s men’s national team, Harambee Stars, could make history today by qualifying for the quarter-finals of the African Nations Championships (CHAN).

Harambee Stars could do so despite not being in action until Sunday when they face Zambia at the Moi International Sports Centre, Kasarani.

Benni McCarthy’s men have been on a roll so far, winning two games and drawing once to put them on the brink of qualification for the knockout rounds.

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They started by beating DR Congo 1-0 before holding Angola to a one-all draw despite playing with 10 men for over 70 minutes. Harambee Stars then produced their best result so far, beating pre-tournament favourites Morocco 1-0 on Sunday.

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The win over Morocco could have sealed the deal had Zambia held Angola on Sunday, but after the latter won, Kenya are still not mathematically secure.

This could change today when Angola returns to Kasarani to take on DR Congo. The earlier match will see Morocco face Zambia from 5 pm at Nyayo Stadium.

As it stands, Kenya leads the group with seven points, having played three games.

Angola are second with four points from three games, while Morocco and DR Congo each have three points from two games. Zambia have no points after playing two games.

To understand this arithmetic, let’s compare how many points each team has, their remaining games, their potential results and what they need to surpass Kenya.

Remember, only the top two teams qualify for the next stage.

Angola’s result today against DR Congo is what will determine if Kenya qualifies tonight or they will have to wait for Sunday.

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If Angola beat DR Congo, and Kenya lose to Zambia, they will move to seven points each. The first tie-breaker in such situations is the H2H, and given they played out to a 1-1 draw, they will move to the next metric: the goal difference.

Angola currently has a -1 GD while Kenya has 2. Pedro Goncalves’ men will therefore have to beat DR Congo by four clear goals to usurp Kenya from the top of the table.

If Angola drops points vs DR Congo, Kenya will have qualified for the quarter-finals. Alternatively, if they win but it’s not 4-0, or it’s equivalent (e.g 5-1), Kenya will be through, no matter what happens vs Zambia.

Both teams can surpass Kenya’s current tally if they win their last two games and Kenya loses or draws to Zambia.

Luckily for Harambee Stars, this can’t happen as Morocco and DR Congo face each other on the last day, which means one of them, or all of them, must drop points.

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Assuming Morocco beat Zambia today and DR Congo beat Angola, they would both move to six points, one behind Kenya, with one game left.

If they draw against each other on the last day and Kenya loses to Zambia, all the three teams will be tied on seven points, but Kenya will still be ahead of them on the H2H basis as Harambee Stars beat both of them.

If one of them beats the other and Kenya fails to beat Zambia, they will move ahead of McCarthy’s men, while the other will remain on six points…which is less than what Kenya currently have.

Bottom line is, only one of DR Congo or Morocco can better Kenya’s tally, even if Harambee Stars lose the last game 10-0. One of them will be eliminated (or both, depending on Angola’s result).

The maximum points Zambia can get now is six, which is below Kenya’s seven. This essentially means that if Kenya is eliminated, Zambia will go home as well.

CHAN 2024: President William Ruto makes new promises to Harambee Stars players

Even if they qualify today, Harambee Stars players will have a different motivation on Sunday thanks to President William Ruto’s promises.

For starters, a win will help them avoid a trip to Dar es Salaam to play Tanzania in the quarters.

Secondly, Ruto has promised each player KSh 2.5 million if they beat Zambia.

Source: TUKO.co.ke